Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
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