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- By Linda Kelly
- 09 Apr 2026
The inherent challenges of round-robin tennis often result in during this phase of the ATP Finals fans frequently find themselves puzzled, searching around for a mathematical tool and striving to determine the complex permutations of qualification. Yet this evening's contest between Alexander Zverev and Auger-Aliassime, thankfully, is straightforward. This is a winner-takes-all affair: the winner sets up a final four battle against Carlos Alcaraz at this year-end tournament; the defeated player heads out.
Zverev is the favourite for this: the third-ranked player is the more experienced competitor, has been the champion at this event twice before and is ahead in their direct encounters with six victories against three defeats, winning both their previous matches on an covered hard surface.
But … this is the surface on which Auger-Aliassime has claimed the bulk of his trophies, he is in great form after his impressive recovery against Shelton on Wednesday and he eliminated Zverev in the US Open early stage in late summer. Plus, the court pace is quicker in Turin than at Flushing Meadows, which is even more beneficial in the Canadian's benefit.
If Zverev holds back, as he did against the Italian, and Felix aggressively challenges the German with his stinging serves and confident shots, there is a strong chance the young Canadian – the earlier standout who was previously positioned ahead of the Spanish and Italian stars to replace the legendary trio – who secures the uncertain distinction of facing the world No 1 tomorrow.
The match starts: at approximately 8:30 PM in Turin, 7:30 PM in the UK.
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